Liverpool are set to battle Manchester United on Saturday in a pivotal Premier League match. For Liverpool, the clash is being looked at as an opportunity to jumpstart the squad and get back on track. A win for Liverpool would be enormous and would put Liverpool right back in the top of the Premier League. For Manchester United, this game is the first true test of a team that pundits call title contenders. We will break the match-up down and analyze.
Head to Head Numbers
All-time, Manchester United lead the head-to-head match-up with 67 wins to Liverpool's 56. The two rivals have drawn in 47 of these contests, including the last 3 head-to-head meetings. Looking at the two clubs more recent meetings, United still hold the upper hand. In the last 15 meetings, Liverpool have just 4 wins to United's 8, with 3 draws.
In the 8 meetings, Liverpool have just 1 win, a 2-0 victory in the Europa League. That win ended a 4-game losing streak to Man U. The matches between the two are typically close contests. In addition to the current 3-game draw streak, the last 15 games have had 11 games that were decided by a goal or less. Only 4 of the last 15 were decided by more than a goal, with the largest margin of victory being 3 goals. The last time a fixture between the two resulted in a 4 goal or more differential was way back in May 2003 when Manchester United defeated Liverpool 4-0. Expect the game to be tight.
Leading Scorers
Romelu Lukaku is off to a blazing start in his Manchester United campaign. This has been well documented. However, Liverpool have a new weapon who is also in excellent form in Mohamed Salah. In addition to his 4 league goals, Salah just netted twice for Egypt to propel the Egyptians to their first World Cup since 1990. In the Premier League, Lukaku leads all scorers with 7 goals, and Salah is Liverpool's leader with 4. The two are also among the leaders in shots, with Lukaku having 31 shots to Salah's 24.
Key Injuries
Two. For Manchester United, they have 2 recent, significant injuries. They look to come to Anfield without the services of Pogba or Fellani. This leaves the midfield options extremely limited and may result in United utilizing a new formation. For Liverpool, they continue to be without Nathaniel Clyne and Adam Lallana, two key pieces that have yet to be fit this season.
Place in the Table / Schedule Analysis
Pundits have showered Manchester United with praise in the early going this season. Manchester United currently sit in second place on the Premier League table, trailing Manchester City only in goal differential. United have 19 points after their first 7 games. Liverpool on the other hand have 12 points and find themselves in 7th. The form in their most recent fixtures (5 games) show United with 4 wins and a draw. Liverpool's recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and a loss.
It is easy to look at the table and conclude Manchester United are a great team and that Liverpool are not in the same class. However, this mindset is lacking and ignores a key component.......the schedule. Specifically, the strength of schedule. If this were, for example, American College Football, teams are ranked and in addition to the results the strength of schedule plays a pivotal role in ranking the teams. If this were the case, Manchester United would drop in the rankings due to their soft early schedule.
Granted, you play the teams on your schedule and pile up the points. Manchester United have done a good job in this aspect. But you cannot ignore who they have played when you analyze how good of a squad United have. Or more appropriately, who they have not played. For example, Liverpool have already played 2 top-5 teams. In these games they have 1 win and 1 loss. Manchester United have played 0 games against a team in the top-5.......or even in the top-10.
Manchester United have benefitted greatly from an easy early schedule. Going back to the college football comparison, it is like a powerhouse college football program scheduling push-over games early in their season prior to facing the tough competition. United have not faced tough competition to date. Five (5) of their first 7 games have come against the BOTTOM 6 clubs in the league. In other words, United have played the worst teams in the league while Liverpool have faced tougher competition. This will even out in the end of the season, but it is important to look at this if you want to analyze the clubs fairly.
Looking at like competition, both Manchester United and Liverpool have faced Crystal Palace and Leicester City in the Premier League. Manchester United beat both teams. As did Liverpool. So looking at games against like opponents both clubs are 2-0 with 6 points. The difference though is that Liverpool's other 5 games have all come against top 10 teams in the league while United have faced lesser competition.
One final way to look at the schedule when you analyze the teams is the average position on the table of their opponents. There are 20 teams in the league so if the average position of your opponents is less than 10, that means you have faced more teams in the top half of the table; greater than 10 means you have played more teams from the bottom half of the table. An average position closer to 15 means you have faced most of the worst teams in the league. For Liverpool, their opponents average position on the table is 9.4, meaning Liverpool have faced more teams from the top half of the table. Manchester United's opponents average position thus far has been 15.8. United have not just played teams from the second half of the table, they have played against almost all of the worst clubs in the league.
Final Thoughts
Maybe Manchester United really have a great team this season and will compete for the title. Maybe. But making such claims based on the early results is foolish. United have had a very soft schedule. If they continue grabbing 3 points when they face stiffer competition then they will certainly compete for the title. Liverpool represent the first true test of United.
Expect the game to be close. Only 1 game in their last 5 meetings were decided by more than a goal, when Liverpool beat Untied 2-0 in the Europa League. With the recent injury concerns for United, they may be forced to change formations. One possibility is going with 3 center backs and 2 wing-backs, hiding the shortage of central midfielders. This would be a more defensive formation and would concede attacking options in an effort to limit Liverpool chances.
In this case, expect it to be a close, low-scoring campaign. Liverpool supporters are waiting for their coming out game where they finally convert on all of the chances they create and score goals in bunches. Sadly, this will probably not be the case on Saturday. My prediction, another draw, this one being 1-1.